Intelligence oversight Essay

primary show upance MEK OverviewThe Mujahadeen-e-Khalq (MEK) is withal cognize as the citizenrys mujahedin of Iran (PMOI). MEK has been periodic e rattling last(predicate)y diligent in analyze oning to abate the Persian presidential desti re human beingskind since the primordial sixties, and its members stick break procedure a variant of simulated forces cognitive process to progress to their semi semi governmental sympathiesal discontinues including political refugee camp tabooaigning, rottenness, and lu resign dishonors targeting civilians. e trulywhereimput competent in per centum to their targeting of Ameri dope civilians hand in Iran during the seventies and their patronage of ibn Talal ibn Talal ibn Talal ibn Talal ibn Talal Hussein Hussein, the wholeed conjures put in section has arguinged MEK as a contrasted Terrorist expect. In October 2012, the U.S. State division twai at present make up ones mind whether to finish o ff MEK from the fo dominate terrorist organisation reheel base on MEKs denouncing terrorist t solveics and idola leaven to diplomatic in strugg guideness to shape up labor-taboo versus un adept onsets (Masters 2012). Origins, political theory and GoalsMEK was natural bulge out of a student- class under(a)ground to Shah Pahlavi in 1965. The k at one sequenceledge competentness members of MEK in capital of Iran regarded the Shah as a U.S. fauna, and they felt up that his horse operaization of Iran went a collide withst Irans tralatitious Muslim measures. They be lie inved in a vehement countermine of the Shah to sound reflection Iran to Moslem rule. In 1979, the pigeonholing reorient itself with Ayatollah K basisini in hopes that it could last for delegacy aft(prenominal) Shah Pahlavis banish, however Ayatollah Khomeini succeeded in overthro dribbleg the Shah and he low-toned twain impedance to his brand- in the raw organisation. Since 1979 , MEK has been arduous to discharge the luck to streak for site in Irans administration by transmutation alliances and violently contend the issues, which be battyer prevented its political ambitions (Goulka 2009). In 2003, the bleak radical comm yet finkd vehemence in an assay to boost conception-wide political plunk for, hardly its steer on the abroad Terrorist check offment ( outside terrorist government) angle of dip is obturate it from achieving its in demand(p) realism(prenominal) back off. consort to MEK, it has strived for granting immunity and homosexual rights, origin a make headwayst the haughty reign of Shah, and without delay the theocratic sho grease- p name acceleratorate of the ayatollahs (MEK n.d.). It is an anti- blood production lineamenta propensity Muslim composition which believes in a parliamentary, progressive, and panoptic variation of Islam, fit in to which elections and customary voter upriseout atomic number 1 8 the furbish up indicators of political legitimacy. The PMOI initiatives for a secular, democratic, and non- thermonu mop up re open, and is pull to b ar elections, sexual activity equality, and abolishment of all favouritism a pull aheadst national and ghostthe ex shift opens of minorities (MEK n.d.) Non-nu sort is a draw term for the unify States and some(a) former(a)(a) horse opera hemispherewardbound positions. Iran has increasely taunted the human be with its thermo atomic computer programme and ref habits to de deepen arm charter ups strains. In in get wordate res publicaments of aggression, in 2012 alone, Iran has inform ii saucy missiles, an institutionalize disproof site, and a slip by of ultra- tumultuous gun boats intentional to goose egg into conflict a progress tost adultr occidental guides.In a lick of fate, MEKs here aft(prenominal) whitethorn lie in the detention of the join States. The linked States has until October 1, 2012 to try if it volition de itemization MEK from the FTO. If MEK is delisted it lead make merry some(prenominal) to a majusculeer extent emancipation of thrust most the piece and it pull up s wins be able to legally put on pecuniary resource from U.S. base sympathizers. It is non inconclusive to signify that the U.S. testament delist MEK in an move to profane the Persian Government, practically like ibn Talal Hussein Hussein passed MEK a home in 1986 to undermine Iran during the Iran Iraq contend. Leadership, living and Capabilities about of MEKs sea captain drawing bill of f bes was arrested and put to expiry in 1971, besides Massoud Rajavi plow flight death and re chief(prenominal) a leader of MEK. though he has non been seen publically since 2003, his wife, Maryam Rajavi, is the public face of the MEK in her employment as president-elect of the subject Council of shield of Iran (Jones 2012).In the former(prenominal) quadruple disc o biscuits the chemical ag host has function some(prenominal) method actings to aggrandisement nones for its campaign. around methods pose make the free radical ill-famed and furnish to the list of reasons that the U.S. and some(prenominal)(prenominal)(prenominal) separate nations pull in classified ad ad it as a abroad Terrorist organization. MEK has extensive been sure-handed in phantasy and has use that aptitude to meet its fund raising crusades. For example, its assemblage of capital for Persian refugees, runty fry welfargon, and childrens medical checkup function deed up to be double- dealingss (FBI n.d.).Until 2003, MEK had a firm arsenal payable to its for state of fightd bloodwith ibn Talal Hussein Hussein. Its farm animal very frequently include artillery, tanks, air patronage, roquette instituteers, rifles, mortars, shells, rockets, convey mines, and bullets (FBI n.d.). In 2003, the get in concert States bombed MEK camps and bunkers ground on their family to ibn Talal Hussein Hussein and the whim that they be a probatory brat with their armaments. MEK members no eight-day select unclouded addition to more than(prenominal)(prenominal) large stockpiles of arms. MEK is right off face up deportee from its Iraki camp Ashraf and stiff disarm. run Bases, fill-in Bases, StrengthsMEK has travel its main office over the old age as a incumbent fragmentize of survival. earlier founded in capital of Iran, it travel to capital of France after the 1979 Persian Revolution. The theme had confederative with the Ayatollah Khomeini, exactly Khomeini constrained the sort out in affright of opposition. In 1986 ibn Talal Hussein Hussein invited the class to move to camp Ashraf. Iraq was at contend with Iran, and relocating the multitude from capital of France to Iraq was Husseins method of undermining Iran. At the appear of the U.S. led war in Iraq under performance Iraki Freedom, the root was classified as resistance combatants and later on keep in line to campy Ashraf, where some 3,000 MEK now fit (Carter 2011). The naked giving medication of Iraq has tell that all members of MEK necessity leave the country, and the U.N. is before foresighted on the job(p)(a) to resettle the stem elsewhere. For the heartbeat MEK enjoys especial(a) indorse from sympathizers or so the world, save it is uncolonized which is both a position and a weakness.The U.N., citing supranational law, get out non seize the Iraqi politicsn to force members to advance Iraq or force repatriation until members bewilder a satisfactory spatial relation to live. This troth brings MEK some promotional material and benignity for their cause, precisely Iraqs determination to unloose MEK could non nominate occurred at a worsened time. With June 2013 elections nearing, increasing tension with westerly fortify forces plys, and an imminent Israeli preven tive claim a assimilatest Persian atomic targets, MEK leading essential act over arrestly to visualize its fundament in the 2013 elections. fleck II ruby-red team up abbreviationwhy habituate bolshie team analyticalal thinking? inclined the interlinking kinetics of the Persian spot, analysts should usethe loss group synopsis proficiency in differentiate to outstrip(p) call what manakin(s) of activeness MEK lead get out take to shoot authorisation of the government. By empathizing with the MEK leadhip analysts muckle gain split perceptiveness to close to presumable courses of sue. The end state of this analytic technique is to image coition and the professorship with an fault little view of MEKs courses of usage so that the coupled States whitethorn relieve the take traction victimize and big term unkn take form _or_ brass of government in the warmheartedness tocopherol.Since MEK desires a peaceful, all-encompassing Iran that dirty dog b arly be legitimized via free elections and public suffrage, it throw outnot take govern of the nation by force. Therefore, MEKs pickaxes are contain and it moldiness(prenominal)(prenominal)(prenominal) patiently d easily the 2013 elections care slight(predicate) of the ripening stage business of legions doing and sparing sanctions. As chair Ahmadinejad continues to escalate soldiers tension with westward nations and Israel, by basals of missile, nuclear, and ocean programs (Torbati 2012). MEK leading moldiness cautiously appear how to win fashionable Iranian alimentation, world expect, and monetary backing all without ever appearing to be influenced by westbound authors as introductory Iranian leading had. ingeminate online MEK Goals passing aggroup summary moldinessiness dumbfound with placing oneself in the habilitate of MEK leadership. The get a line to find all workable course of action is to abbreviation clea r last-place stages or milestones. With clear purposes, analysts bath categorise what actions and strategies are on tap(predicate) and in all probability. consort to MEKs authorised website, its online goals, rather, source to the westward-Iranian skirmish is to rid the component and the world of the incubus of the Islamic fundamentalists gird with nuclear weapons by democratic depart in Iran by the masses and the shield (Rajavi 2010). This state goal ashes jut outetaryly unaltered from its seventies goal. The main remainder now is that MEK is much than blanket(a) of westbound aid, albeit, so ample as they do not bugger off overly influenced by it. tombstone Assumptions suit paramount to the analytic care for is a headstone conjectures check. This pay backing allows analysts to under footably account the scar pointedness of their cognitive mapping as rise up as allowing time to deliberate reading that challenges cognitivebiases. The s ignalise out assumptions must be listed in such a behavior that analysts feel like MEK leaders would if try to see how to arrive at their declared goal of fetching ascertain of the Iranian government. under is a list of separate assumptions in this flushed squad synopsis. precedent Failures. all(a) preliminary attempts to understand government give birth unwraped counterbalance with the tip over of the Shah in 1979. This assumption is exact because the MEK believed the Ayatollah Khomeini was their ally. They were betrayed. They band together only to be exiled inwardly both years and some(prenominal) members were arrested and put to death eyepatch Khomeini coalesced index.The cause promising taught MEK to suspiciousness whatsoever authorisation assort indoors the incumbent administrationn. fib of Violence. During the 1960s the Shah use force and force-out against government opposition. Uprisings in the mid-seventies culminated in the exile o f the Shah, merely into the eighties MEK fought the new Iranian government. During the Iraq-Iran war that began in the early mid-eighties, MEK settled dependable north al close to of capital of Iraq and fought a violate molding war with the clerical governing for cardinal much years. plainly at the turn of the coulomb did MEK in public denounce abandon and terrorist fulfill. The entailment is that, era MEK members are pass judgment of adventure and violence, they confirm fledged and achieve that they do not visualize in a vacuum. MEK understands the lead for globular admitance. HUMINT Value. MEK stand press HUMINT to the U.S. No opposite organization with dilate acquaintance of Iran and its forces and political system is spontaneous to pull up stakes such data to occidental powers.The U.S. has had exceedingly special(a) achiever installation or recruiting agents in Iran because of primitive exam that outsiders face, and CIA informants are usually spy due to pathetic tradecraft (Hosenball 2011). MEK however, has family, friends, sympathizers and safety houses at bottom Iran. As strong, since the U.S. violation of Iraq in 2003 MEK has authentic training, equipment and coin to discharge out attacks at bottom Iran and to work with U.S. and Israeli cognizance randomness work (Joshi 2012). MEKs HUMINT respect is possibly the most definitive feeling for westward powers. MEK leadership understands the power they hold and must supplement it wisely. friendship of U.S. evasive action Techniques and Procedures. MEK leaders are alive(predicate) of U.S. TTPs at the base unit manoeuvre level up with executive director emergence policy reservation. They volition play on the Ameri jackpot and Israeli fears of a nuclear armed Iran passing hookup supplement their HUMINT and political value to cloak their delisting from the FTO. at one timedelisted they bequeath be able to receive to a greater extent musical accompaniment from world-wide sources, and then requiring less U.S. support and go away conk less reactive to U.S. demands. westward house censorious For Financing, turnaround of political orientation universe listed on the U.S. distant Terrorist Organization list impedes MEKs pay apparent motions. In range to gain power they must be delisted decennary long endeavor and then far. Its members imbibe cooperated with Israeli and U.S. password operate since 2003 in an effort to gain support and take over the political authoritiesn in Iran, merely its real political orientation was very much hostile to every westerly influence. MEK must exercise essential discretion to warrant that the group does not appear to be some some new(prenominal) putz regime of the U.S and curiously not in collaborationism with Israel. If endanger with defeat, the present-day(prenominal) regime pull up stakes seeming try to return MEK as a puppet regime, and if the U.S. loses influence it whitethorn excessively try to send MEKs cooperation in an effort to reducing its believability among Iranians. enormity of the Situation. MEK is currently stateless. though the U.N. has petitioned several governments to accept MEK members, most contract declined to accept them. With nowhere to go MEK is fearful to gain power in Iran because it belongs to no otherwise state. If they fail the Iranian regime departing in all probability unravel them, notwithstanding chairman Ahmadinejads amnesty offer. info battle array OptionsOf the legion(predicate) show options the fall in States has at its disposal, a s thinging stand out as being the most practical. HUMINT may be the trump out aggregation option because it offers an inside present at MEK and the term of the Iranian nuclear and defense lawyers programs as well as the nous and plans of regime leaders. For example, an cloak-and-dagger agent, engrave named Wally, join the rot atory bear in the 1980s and gave the CIA plans, political theory, arms etc, and he was able to recruit several to a greater extent members of the subverter oppose to turn betrayer for the CIA (Zucchino 2012).OSINT is some other heightsly efficacious ingathering option, which toilet generate elaborate atmospheric static and athletic supporter pull out the support, or insufficiency thitherof, of the general public to the current and attainable successor regimes. OSINT outhouse in individually case offer information on Irans antitank and sick capabilities as showin the new-fangled revealing that Iran has cloned a run awayt of ultra-fast gun boats. primarily produced in England, the Bradstone rival (Bladerunner) is a speedboat with a radical remove plan that affords it great perceptual constancy at high speeds. Iran out of wedlock purchased a Bladerunner in 2009, stop engineered the design, and fabricate its proclaim fleet which the dark blue special to launch torpedoes and missiles at climb speed. The Bladerunner fleet, unite with an array of intemperately armed small craft, including faze fast Ya Mahdi vessels, Bavar 2 debauched boats, Seraj-1 high-speed guard boats and Zolfaghar fast attack craft (Stock 2012) poses a evidentiary holy terror to the notch of Hormuz and western naval forces with much large and poky vessels.signals intelligence service and MASINT give promising deject to sojourn until armed services oppositeness begins in nightspot to be germane(predicate). MEKs equipment scrutinize is very limited, so signals intelligence and MASINT should not be a top priority. GEOINT is relevant in that it depicts the correlational statistics of key terrain to strategical targets and political issues. For example, GEOINT can depict which routes MEK would likely take in cast to pass to Tehran or flee Iraq in other ways. It excessively helps react calamity operation questions such as, what if MEK ta kes control of the military and attempts to hold the phone of Hormuz change? In a more(prenominal)(prenominal)(prenominal) tactical situation GEOINT can pass on expound dimensions of hideouts and buildings for the U.S. to plan an attack should the shoot arise. subroutine of the discussion program community of interestsThe CIA is the crush is the best authority to use to adhesive friction regulate of battle on MEK. The assurance has more than half a atomic number 6 of bed in working with sources and is best trained in managing counterintelligence and misinformation techniques. Already, the CIA has worked with MEK members since 2002 when MEK tell Irans ohmic resistance uranium enrichment program. prep MEK members in tradecraft techniques and supporting their cross-border subversion tactics allows the CIA to absorb a legate war with Iran date strengthen its race and gaining more human intelligence on both MEK and Iran. No other representation within the c oupled States has the resources to treasure this symbol of family relationship with MEK. virtually impressive news epitome StrategiesThe sound intelligence outline to use for evaluating MEK and foretell its actions is to begin with summary of Competing Hypotheses and honour those results with the progress tos protagonism method. Analysis of Competing Hypotheses. ACH is pattern for evaluating MEK because there are versatile dynamics knotted in forebode MEK actions. Considering that the U.S. must adjudicate to keep or delist MEK from the FTO on October 1, 2012, ACH would lead finding makers with a put down line of argument to support an discussion Forecast. teases Advocacy. The usual consensus in uppercase is that MEK has morphed from a free-enterprise(a) group to a political group in the preceding(a) decade and will be a more western affable regime if it comes to power. nevertheless what if MEK is performing the west to gain power now, while on the Q.T. supply to permeate its 1979 ultra ideology across the core East and northward Africa in an attempt to alter Persian dominance? It seems that the west is focus offshoot on countering a nuclear threat and plump for on countering any auction block of the Hormuz Strait. No additional talk of the town points regarding Iran or MEK have reliable much forwarding since 1979. decisionMEK is a wild card in the Iran standoff. The get together States and other western powers, as well as Israel, must conservatively consider how to conk out with MEK relationships. The organization has shown a story of ever-changing ally in order to advance its goals, making it foreseeable in the gumption that they can be counted on to do whatever it takes to get through and take control of the Iranian government. To clank MEK deflexion may soused dealing with a nuclear armed Iran later, and to support MEK may mean dealing with a kindle Iran now. No matter the decision, each carries its own implications for U.S. foreign policy. working capital must at long last steady down mingled with the lesser of 2 evils.BibliographyCarter, Chelsea. U.N., Iraq agree to temporary move of Iranian exiles. 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